Perception of Environmental Risks: Where Do Biodiversity and Climate Stand?

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The 2024 edition of the Future Risks Report by Axa, now in its eleventh edition and conducted in collaboration with IPSOS, involved over 3,000 risk experts in 50 countries and about 20,000 citizens from 15 nations, with the aim of analyzing the perception and impact of emerging risks (including climate risk) on society. For the third consecutive year, climate risk ranked first, confirming itself as the main concern among experts on all continents. Additionally, 77% of the public who selected this risk among the top five reported feeling vulnerable in their daily lives. This figure has increased by 73% compared to last year's report, confirming the fact that people are increasingly aware of the impact of climate change and its consequences.

The AXA report highlighted that climate risk is recognized globally. In this context, global warming consistently ranks among the priorities on the international political agenda. In recent years, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as devastating wildfires, record heatwaves, and more intense hurricanes, has underscored the urgency of coordinated actions to mitigate environmental risks in both Europe and the United States. During the COP28 summit in Dubai (2023), the world's leading economies, including the EU and the USA, reaffirmed their commitment to achieving the net zero emissions target by 2050. The summit marked significant progress in negotiations to implement concrete measures succeeding the Paris agreements, focusing on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and global reforestation.

In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) represents a turning point in climate policy, with a historic investment of $369 billion in renewable energy and low-emission technologies. This change also reflects a greater awareness among the American public, which, after events like Hurricane Katrina and California wildfires, is demanding tangible actions against climate risks. In Europe, the European Green Deal serves as a cornerstone of the ecological transition, with ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Despite progress, geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, pose significant obstacles to truly inclusive and effective climate governance. The urgency is further highlighted by reports like the Global Risks Outlook 5 that identifies environmental risks as the main threats for the coming decade.

In addition to climate change, the AXA Future Risks Report 2024 highlights how the loss of biodiversity is emerging as a growing threat. This risk, closely linked to the management of natural resources, ranks among the main concerns of both experts and the public. In particular, it has moved from 7th to 6th place in the global experts' ranking. The destruction of habitats and the reduction of key species populations not only affect ecosystems, but amplify risks related to food security, climate resilience, and human health. According to the Future Risks Report, sustainable management of natural resources is crucial to mitigate the impacts of this crisis, with the goal of protecting ecosystem balances and the local economies that depend on it.

The AXA report highlights the importance of implementing investment policies immediately to combat global warming. According to research by the Potsdam Institute, every dollar invested could avoid up to six dollars in future costs. However, resources currently available are limited by other urgent priorities, such as the growing pressure on healthcare, social care, and pension budgets due to an aging population. Therefore, there is a correlation to consider between climate risks and risks related to demographic changes. As stated in the Future Risks Report 2024, younger workers not only have to finance healthcare and pensions, but are also frustrated by the lack of climate investments.

While climate risk is already perceived by most as one of the main emerging threats, the perception of the risk related to biodiversity loss is not yet as widespread, especially among the public, although among experts there has been an increase, as highlighted in the report. Both climate change and biodiversity loss represent concrete threats to global balance, with direct impacts on food security, health, and the economy. Despite international commitments, such as those made during COP216 and COP29, geopolitical challenges and economic difficulties make ambitious solutions more difficult to achieve. In this scenario, businesses can play a crucial role by investing in concrete actions to counter environmental risks and defining ad hoc climate strategies and biodiversity strategies.

In this context, the XNatura platform by 3Bee is inserted, allowing municipalities, businesses, and natural parks to monitor impacts and dependencies on nature to define a tailored climate strategy, while ensuring regulatory compliance. In risk assessment for climate change, the platform monitors the evolution of temperature and precipitation over time and includes parameters such as the MSA Climate Change, which evaluates the impact of climate change on biodiversity. In natural risk assessment, the platform particularly focuses on hydrogeological risk, considering the severity and frequency of flood events and providing an estimate of the likelihood of similar episodes occurring in the next two years.