2035 Climate Plans: 95% of Countries Delayed, Europe Stagnant

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By the February 10 deadline for the submission of new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) plans for emission reductions by 2035, only 13 of the 195 signatory parties to the Paris Agreement met the deadline set by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Among the countries that have updated their emission reduction plans are the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the United States, although Donald Trump's new political course may question the American commitment. These are joined by Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador, Saint Lucia, Marshall Islands, Singapore, Zimbabwe, and more recently, Canada.

China, the European Union, and India have also not yet presented their updated climate plans. The NDCs are essential for assessing the intentions of states and comparing them with the scientific recommendations of the IPCC, which suggest a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. However, last year, just before the COP29 in Baku, the synthesis report highlighted that the combined commitments would lead to a reduction in emissions of only 2.6%, insufficient to keep the global temperature increase below 1.5°C.

An analysis by Carbon Brief indicates that the countries that missed the deadline account for 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world economy. Among them, the European Union admitted, during COP29 in Baku, the impossibility of submitting NDCs on time. The COP30 summit, to be held in Brazil in November, is regarded as a crucial moment for countries to intensify their efforts to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In a speech on February 6, the UN climate chief, Simon Stiell, stated that “the vast majority of countries have indicated that they will present new plans this year.” Furthermore, he added that countries must submit their plans by September to be included in the next global stocktake by the United Nations on climate action, in preparation for COP30.

One of the major absentees in the presentation of the NDCs is the European Union. During the COP29, Brussels had already admitted the impossibility of meeting the deadline. Italy has fulfilled its transparency obligations by submitting the Biennial Transparency Report (BTR), a biennial document required by the Paris Agreement to monitor national progress on mitigation and adaptation. But Brussels's position on the new emission reduction target for 2035 remains uncertain. Tasneem Essop, executive director of the Climate Action Network (CAN), expressed concern about the global delay in submitting the NDCs, highlighting the lack of political will to meet the commitments made in Paris. With an increasingly uncertain international landscape, the risk is that climate goals may end up becoming secondary to other economic and geopolitical priorities.

This article was created as part of the "Biodiversity services EU expansion" project (CUP: E43D22000480009) under the Regione Lombardia "PR FESR 2021-2027 – LINEA INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE 21-27" call, aimed at supporting the internationalization of Italian companies. 3Bee is the naturetech company that develops innovative technologies for monitoring, protecting, and regenerating biodiversity, supporting businesses in defining personalized climate strategies based on the analysis of their impacts and dependencies on nature. With a consolidated portfolio in Italy, Germany, and France and significant partnerships, 3Bee continues its expansion in international markets to create a tangible impact through technology.