The End of La Niña: What to Expect in the Coming Months According to Climatologists

La Niña, a natural phenomenon that causes a drop in temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean, arrived at the beginning of the year but had a much shorter and less intense duration than expected. Initially, its influence was visible as early as last fall, but the cold Pacific temperatures marking the beginning of the phenomenon only occurred towards the end of the year. Nonetheless, La Niña remained active for only a few months. Now, following the end of La Niña, a neutral phase has begun, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). According to forecasts, this neutral state will last throughout the spring, summer, and probably even until autumn. The transition from La Niña to neutral conditions does not mark a sharp change, but the effects of the phenomenon could persist for some time, albeit to a lesser extent.

With both La Niña and El Niño phasing out, the global climate system is in a phase of neutrality. This scenario makes it more challenging to predict future weather conditions, as two important predictive references are missing. Although the direct effects of La Niña are fading, some climate remnants may persist in the coming months. According to Michelle L’Heureux, a climatologist at the Climate Prediction Center, it is difficult to determine how long these residual influences will last. However, meteorologists are already beginning to formulate hypotheses about how this new condition will influence temperatures and extreme phenomena in different areas of the globe.

One of the most anticipated effects of the neutral phase concerns the hurricane season in the Atlantic, which begins in June and peaks from August to October. Typically, La Niña favors more active seasons, while El Niño tends to suppress them. The absence of both makes forecasts less certain, with a 50% chance that neutral conditions will persist during the crucial period. However, other factors come into play: the ocean temperatures, still unusually high due to global warming, could favor intense cyclonic activity. According to some experts, there are signs indicating a potentially very active 2025 season.

Forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center indicate above-average temperatures between spring and summer in the United States. The only exceptions might be in the Pacific Northwest and some northern areas. Globally, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and extreme, fueled by greenhouse gas emissions. The years 2023 and 2024 have recorded record ocean temperatures, and 2025 seems to be continuing on this trajectory. The effects of global warming have not subsided with the end of El Niño or La Niña: on the contrary, the Earth's system continues to accumulate heat.

In addition to high temperatures, climate models indicate that the summer will be characterized by drought in various regions of the United States. When heat and drought combine, they trigger a vicious cycle: dry soil promotes air heating, and prolonged heat exacerbates drought. It is the same pattern observed in the summer of 2023, when many areas were hit by extreme conditions. Even without La Niña or El Niño, the influence of global warming and ocean thermal anomalies can significantly impact, pushing seasons towards increasingly intense and frequent extreme weather events.

This article was created as part of the "Biodiversity services EU expansion" project (CUP: E43D22000480009) under the Regione Lombardia call "PR FESR 2021-2027 – LINEA INTERNAZIONALIZZAZIONE 21-27", aimed at supporting the internationalization of Italian companies. 3Bee is the naturetech company that develops innovative technologies for monitoring, protecting, and regenerating biodiversity, supporting companies in defining customized climate strategies based on the analysis of their impacts and dependencies on nature. With a consolidated portfolio in Italy, Germany, and France and significant partnerships, 3Bee continues its expansion in international markets to create a concrete impact through technology.